2024 Taiwanese presidential election

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2024 Taiwanese presidential election
← 2020 13 January 2024 2028 →
 
Nominee Lai Ching-te Hou Yu-ih Ko Wen-je
Party DPP KMT TPP
Running mate Hsiao Bi-khim Jaw Shaw-kong Cynthia Wu
Administrative divisions of Taiwan
Incumbent President

Tsai Ing-wen
DPP



The 8th direct presidential election in Taiwan is scheduled to be held on 13 January 2024 as part of the 2024 general election.[1][2] Incumbent President Tsai Ing-wen of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) is ineligible for reelection due to term limits.

The ruling DPP nominated Vice President Lai Ching-te in March 2023, he having secured the party chairmanship by acclamation. He selected Hsiao Bi-khim, the then-Representative to the United States, as his running mate.

The opposition Kuomintang (KMT) nominated the incumbent New Taipei mayor Hou Yu-ih as their candidate for president in May 2023. In November, Hou chose the former Legislative Yuan member Jaw Shaw-kong to be his running mate. The Taiwan People’s Party (TPP) nominated Ko Wen-je, its leader, the former Mayor of Taipei, who in turn chose Legislative Yuan member Cynthia Wu as his running mate. Despite previously saying he would support Hou’s nomination, businessman Terry Gou declared his own independent bid in September 2023, before ultimately dropping out in November.

Although the Kuomintang and Taiwan People's Party had initially agreed to field a joint ticket in November 2023, the two sides were unable to reach a final agreement, and each announced their own vice presidential candidate on the last day of registration. Billionaire businessman Terry Gou had submitted enough signatures to qualify him to run the presidential election as an independent before eventually withdrawing from the election.[3]

The winner of the 2024 presidential election is scheduled to be inaugurated on 20 May 2024.

Background[edit]

Tsai Ing-wen, the incumbent President of the Republic of China (Taiwan), is ineligible to seek re-election after serving two terms.

Tsai Ing-wen of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) became the first woman president after winning the 2016 presidential election, defeating KMT nominee Eric Chu. She won a second term in 2020 and will serve until 2024.[4] Tsai resigned as party chairman after the DPP suffered losses in the 2022 Taiwanese local elections. She was replaced in an acting capacity by Chen Chi-mai.[5] Tsai’s Vice President Lai Ching-te ultimately became the party chairman by acclamation in late 2022.[6]

Qualifications and procedure[edit]

Presidential and vice presidential candidates are elected on the same ticket using first-past-the-post voting. This will be the eighth direct election of the president and vice president, the posts having previously been indirectly elected by the National Assembly until 1996. According to the constitution, Tsai, having served two terms, is term-limited from office. Under Article 22 of the Presidential and Vice Presidential Election and Recall Act, only the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), Kuomintang (KMT), Taiwan People's Party (TPP), and New Power Party (NPP), having received more than five percent of the total vote in either the last presidential or legislative election, are eligible to contest the election.

Candidates register with the Central Election Commission. Under Article 23, independent candidates and smaller parties are also eligible to contest, registering as the candidates for President and Vice President by the way of joint signature shall, within five days after the public notice for election is issued, apply to the Central Election Commission for being the presenter recommended by way of joint signature, receive a list of joint signers and to receive 1.5 per cent of the total electors in the latest election of the members of the Legislative Yuan, and pay the deposit of NT$1,000,000.[7][original research?] For the 2024 presidential election, the number of signatures required for independent candidates is approximately 290,000.[8] The complete petition is to be submitted between 13 and 17 September 2023, and the signature collection period follows from 17 September to 2 November 2023.[9] Presidential candidacies were formally registered between 20 and 24 November 2023.[10] Lots for ballot positioning were drawn on 11 December; the Taiwan People's Party ticket was to be listed first, followed by the Democratic Progressive Party, then the Kuomintang.[11]

Timetable[edit]

Key Dates
Date Event
15 March 2023 The Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) officially nominates vice president Lai Ching-te as the party's presidential nominee.
8 May 2023 The Taiwan People's Party (TPP) officially nominates former Taipei mayor Ko Wen-je as the party's presidential nominee.
17 May 2023 The Kuomintang Party (KMT) officially nominates New Taipei mayor Hou Yu-ih as the party's presidential nominee.
28 August 2023 Businessman Terry Gou declares his candidacy for the presidency as an independent.
12 September-4 December 2023 Accepting applications for the election of the president and vice president and registration of electors who return to the country to exercise their right to vote.
14 September 2023 Terry Gou selects actress Lai Pei-hsia as his running mate.
13 November 2023 Gou qualifies to run in the presidential election.
13 November 2023 The KMT and TPP agree to use polling to determine the formation of a joint-ticket.
14 November 2023 Announcement of the signature results of the presidential and vice presidential election.
18 November 2023 The KMT and TPP fail to form a unity ticket by their own deadline.
20 November 2023 The Lai-Hsiao DPP ticket is formed, and formally register at the Central Election Commission.
24 November 2023 Terry Gou withdraws from the election.
24 November 2023 Deadline for presidential candidate registration; the KMT and TPP file separate tickets.
20, 26 and 28 December 2023 3 sessions of policy presentation forum organized by Central Election Commission for presidential candidates.[12][13][14][15]
22 December 2023 Policy presentation forum organized by Central Election Commission for vice-president candidates.[12][13][14]
30 December 2023 Presidential debate featuring all three candidates, jointly organized by 11 Taiwanese media corporations and hosted at Public Television Service (PTS) studio.[16]
1 January 2024 Vice presidential debate organized jointly by 11 Taiwanese media corporations and hosted at PTS studio.[16]
13 January 2024 Voting will be held from 8 a.m. to 4 p.m.
20 May 2024 The next president will be inaugurated.

Nominations[edit]

Democratic Progressive Party[edit]

See also: 2023 Democratic Progressive Party chairmanship by-election

Incumbent president, two-time Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) presidential nominee, and former Chair of the DPP Tsai Ing-wen is ineligible to run, having completed two consecutive terms. Tsai resigned as DPP Chair in 2022, following the party’s poor performance in the local elections of that year.[17] After Tsai’s resignation, Vice President Lai Ching-te (also known as William Lai) was unanimously elected to succeed her as Chair of the DPP.[18] Lai was previously selected to be Tsai’s running mate after she defeated him in the 2020 primary.[19] No primary was held, and Lai Ching-te, being the only individual to register in the party's presidential primary, is the nominee of the Democratic Progressive Party.[20][21][22]

In November 2023, it was reported that Lai was considering selecting Hsiao Bi-khim, Taiwan’s representative to the United States, as his running mate.[23] Hsiao resigned from her position as US representative (de facto ambassador) and returned to Taiwan on 19 November.[24] Lai officially named Hsiao as the election running mate on the same day.[25] Upon selecting Hsiao, Lai called his new running mate “a warrior for democracy” with whom he shared a common vision for Taiwan. The Lai-Hsiao ticket formally registered at the Central Election Commission 20 November 2023.[26]  

Nominees[edit]

2024 Democratic Progressive ticket
William Lai Hsiao Bi-khim
for President for Vice President
Vice President of the Republic of China (Taiwan)
(2020–present) 		Representative to the United States
(2020–2023)

Kuomintang[edit]

Hou Yu-ih, the Mayor of New Taipei since 2018, was drafted by the Kuomintang (KMT) on 17 May 2023 to be its nominee for the presidency.[27] Hou faced opposition from Foxconn founder Terry Gou, who vowed to support him as the KMT’s nominee.[28] On 24 November 2023, the Kuomintang named former legislator Jaw Shaw-kong as its vice presidential candidate.[29]

Nominees[edit]

2024 Kuomintang ticket
Hou Yu-ih Jaw Shaw-kong
for President for Vice President
Mayor of New Taipei
(2018–present) 		Member of the Legislative Yuan
(1987–1991, 1993–1994)

Taiwan People's Party[edit]

Ko Wen-je, being the only individual to register in the party's presidential primary, is the nominee of the Taiwan People's Party (TPP).[30][31] On 24 November 2023, Ko selected Cynthia Wu, current legislator since November 2022, as his running mate.[32]

Nominees[edit]

2024 Taiwan People's ticket
Ko Wen-je Cynthia Wu
for President for Vice President
Mayor of Taipei
(2014–2022) 		Member of the Legislative Yuan
(2022–present)

Other parties and independents[edit]

All independent and minor party candidates need a minimum of 290,000 signatures to register with the Central Election Commission.[33]

Withdrawn candidates[edit]

Terry Gou[edit]

Billionaire businessman Terry Gou, who founded the global technology manufacturing company Foxconn in 1974, declared his own presidential run as an independent candidate on 28 August 2023.[34] This was despite previously stating he would support Kuomintang nominee Hou Yu-ih. The KMT described Gou’s announcement as ‘deeply regrettable’.[35] Lai Ching-te welcomed Gou’s entrance into the race, saying he would be happy to take on the challenge.[36] Gou was the first of the mainstream candidates to announce his running mate; he selected actress Lai Pei-hsia [zh] (otherwise known as Tammy Lai) as his running mate on 14 September.[37] Lai had previously played a fictional Taiwanese presidential candidate on a Chinese-language Netflix series, Wave Makers.[38] Gou’s campaign was mired by allegations that it was buying signatures.[39] By November 2023, at least 20 separate investigations into fraudulent practices and signature forgeries were opened.[40] 7 people were arrested in what was described as a ‘signature-buying scheme’ a few weeks earlier.[33] Gou denied these allegations, and claimed that individuals who were buying signatures were acting on their own accord and were not part of his official campaign. Gou submitted his signatures on 1 November 2023.[41] On 13 November, over 900,000 of Gou’s submitted signatures were validated by the election commission, qualifying him to run the presidential election.[42] Amidst the deadline to register with the Central Election Commission, Gou released a statement on 24 November dropping out of the race.[3] In a statement, Gou said “I’m dropping out, but my aspirations live on.”[43]  He did not endorse a candidate.[44]

2024 independent politician ticket
Terry Gou Lai Pei-hsia
for President for Vice President
Founder and CEO of Foxconn
(1974–2019) 		Actor, singer, writer
Other withdrawn candidates[edit]

Disqualified candidates[edit]

Nine of ten third-party or independent presidential tickets did not meet the signature petition requirements set by the Central Election Commission, and were disqualified from the election. Including Gou, only five presidential candidates and their running mates attempted to submit signatures. The rest are as follows:[46]

Election campaign[edit]

A "Team Taiwan" election poster featuring William Lai, October 2023.

Throughout the election campaign, almost all polls have showed Vice President William Lai winning the election by a plurality (~32%), with the rest of the vote being split between the KMT and TPP.[47] Lai’s lead increased in September 2023, when Terry Gou announced his own independent bid for the presidency.[48] In August 2023, amid campaiging, Lai Ching-te went to Paraguay for an official visit in his capacity as Vice President, with two stopovers in the United States.[49] Lai insisted he was not campaigning during the trips.[50] In late October, China opened an investigation into Foxconn, after Chinese tax authorities conducted an audit of the company's subsidiaries in the Guangdong and Jiangsu provinces.[51]

Lai’s campaign used his late pet dog and Hsiao’s pet cats as campaign mascots, the cats referencing Hsiao’s “cat warrior" diplomacy.[52]

Possible KMT–TPP joint ticket[edit]

In late 2023, talks of a possible joint ticket between the KMT and TPP began.[53] It was initially unclear if the KMT’s Hou Yu-ih and the TPP’s Ko Wen-je will join as a ticket, let alone who will be the nominee for president and vice president once a joint ticket was announced.[47] The DPP’s Lai stated he would be able to take on the challenge of a joint ticket, and criticized the coalition plans, arguing the two parties do not share enough similarity in ideology.[54] In November, Ko said that deciding who would lead the ticket as the presidential nominee was the ‘only hurdle’ remaining in forming the ticket.[47] On 13 November, the KMT and TPP agreed to use polling to determine the composition of the joint presidential ticket.[55] The order of the joint ticket was to be chosen based on opinion polls and publicly announced on 18 November,[56] but the two sides were unable to come to an agreement on that date.[57] On 18 November, the original deal collapsed following a dispute regarding the polling.[58] The KMT and TPP were reportedly unable to come to a consensus surrounding the margins of error.[59] Despite the initial collapse, there were still attempts to form a pan-blue coalition ticket. Terry Gou, who himself had run in the KMT primary, was informally invited to talks as well.[60]  A televised press conference between Hou You-ih, Ko Wen-je, Terry Gou, as well as Eric Chu and Ma Ying-jeou took place on 23 November.[61] The press conference did not yield any agreement between any of the involved parties, and was described as “bizarre”.[62] On 24 November, the deadline for candidate registration, and each party announced their own vice presidential candidate, diminishing any chance of a pan-blue ticket.[63]

Debates[edit]

Debates for presidential candidates and vice presidential candidates were announced on 8 December. These were organized by 11 Taiwanese media corporations including Taiwan's Public Television Service as the host, and include all 3 candidates for President and Vice President, respectively.[16][64] The presidential and vice-presidential debates were held on 30 December and 1 January respectively.[65][11] Prior to the debates, Central Election Commission organized several televised policy presentations on 20, 26, and 28 December for presidential candidates and on 22 December for vice presidential candidates.[12][13][14]

2024 Taiwan presidential election debate
Date Host[16]  P  Present    A  Absent   I  Invited  
DPP
William Lai 		KMT
Hou Yu-ih 		TPP
Ko Wen-je
30 December 2023[65] PTS[16] P P P
2024 Taiwan vice presidential debate
Date Host[16]  P  Present    A  Absent   I  Invited  
DPP
Hsiao Bi-khim 		KMT
Jaw Shaw-kong 		TPP
Cynthia Wu
1 January 2024[65] PTS[16] P P P

Opinion polling[edit]

Local regression of polls conducted since 2023

After candidate registrations[edit]

Pollster Fieldwork date Sample size Lai-Hsiao
DPP 		Hou-Jaw
KMT 		Ko-Wu
TPP 		Others
Undecided 		Lead
3 January 2024 Publication of election polls forbidden until after the election.[66]
ETtoday 31 December 2023–1 January 2024 1,557 38.9% 35.8% 22.4% 2.8% 3.1%
Mirror Media 30–31 December 2023 1,099 35.6% 24.1% 24.2% 16.2% 11.4%
ETtoday 1,295 35.4% 33.4% 22.1% 3.1% 2%
TVBS 30 December 2023 1,407 33% 30% 24% 13% 3%
udn 26–30 December 2023 1,215 32% 27% 21% 20% 5%
FTNN 26–29 December 2023 1,200 35.8% 27.3% 22.1% 14.8% 8.5%
QuickseeK 1,285 33.7% 23.7% 27.7% 14.8% 10%
RW News 25–29 December 2023 12,409 36.89% 32.83% 28.64% 1.63% 4.06%
ETtoday 27–28 December 2023 1,740 36.6% 33.8% 22.2% 7.4% 2.8%
TVBS 22–28 December 2023 1,074 37% 33% 22% 9% 4%
SETN 26–27 December 2023 1,095 30.9% 27.9% 23.8% 17.5% 3%
ETtoday 25–26 December 2023 1,618 38.1% 34.8% 19.2% 7.8% 3.3%
Mirror Media 24–25 December 2023 1,081 33.3% 26.5% 23.2% 17.0% 6.8%
CMMedia 23–25 December 2023 1,066 29.5% 22.7% 27.8% 20.1% 1.7%
TPOF 22–24 December 2023 1,076 32.4% 28.2% 24.6% 14.8% 4.2%
Formosa 20–21 December 2023 1,070 38.2% 33.9% 16.1% 11.7% 4.3%
ETtoday 1,217 36.2% 34.8% 20.7% 8.2% 1.4%
TVBS 15–21 December 2023 1,840 33% 32% 24% 11% 1%
QuickseeK 17–20 December 2023 1,288 32.5% 27.2% 26.7% 13.6% 5.3%
udn 13–17 December 2023 1,250 31% 31% 21% 17% Tie
Z.Media 15–16 December 2023 1,213 31.4% 29.6% 20.5% 18.5% 1.8%
ETtoday 14–15 December 2023 1,300 38.5% 35.1% 19.6% 6.8% 3.4%
SETN 11–12 December 2023 1,000 34.7% 28.8% 21.2% 15.3% 5.9%
TVBS 5–12 December 2023 1,632 36% 32% 22% 9% 4%
Mirror Media 10–11 December 2023 1,075 33.5% 25.2% 23.7% 17.5% 8.3%
Formosa 27–28 November 2023 1,076 36.6% 30.5% 17.7% 15.3% 6.1%
RW News 24–28 November 2023 12,041 41.12% 31.05% 25.31% 2.52% 10.07%
TVBS 24–26 November 2023 1,744 34% 31% 23% 12% 3%
udn 1,238 31% 29% 21% 20% 2%
ETtoday 24 November 2023 1,348 34.8% 32.5% 21.2% 11.6% 2.3%

Before candidate registrations[edit]

Pollster Fieldwork date Sample size Lai
DPP 		Hou
KMT 		Ko
TPP 		Gou
IND. 		Others
Undecided 		Lead
24 November 2023 Terry Gou withdraws his candidacy.[3]
Formosa 24–25 October 2023 1,070 32.5% 21.9% 20.4% 5.3% 19.9% 10.6%
1,070 33.7% 24.6% 23.9% — 17.8% 9.1%
TVBS 18–24 October 2023 1,447 33% 22% 24% 8% 14% 11%
34% 26% 29% — 10% 5%
TPOF 15–17 October 2023 1,080 26.5% 20.2% 21.7% 12.4% 19.1% 6.3%
1,080 29.7% 21.1% 25.6% — 23.6% 4.1%
Mirror Media 14–16 October 2023 1,072 32.3% 17.8% 23.2% 9.2% 17.4% 9.1%
1,072 32.1% 18.7% 24.8% — 24.4% 7.3%
SETN 1–3 October 2023 1,000 30.9% 17.8% 24.2% 11.6% 15.5% 6.7%
1,000 32.2% 20.0% 26.8% — 21.1% 5.4%
TVBS 22–26 September 2023 1,127 34% 21% 22% 9% 14% 12%
36% 26% 28% — 11% 9%
Mirror Media 23–24 September 2023 1,096 34.5% 16.5% 24.1% 8.5% 16.3% 10.4%
1,096 33.3% 16.4% 28.0% — 22.3% 5.3%
FTNN 19–24 September 2023 2,402 34.3% 16.3% 18.6% 9.1% 21.7% 12.6%
FTNN 2,402 34.9% 16.8% 20.8% — 27.5% 7.4%
CMMedia 18–22 September 2023 1,213 27.9% 12.6% 22.4% 12.5% 24.6% 3.3%
Formosa 20–21 September 2023 1,072 37.3% 19.7% 16.9% 7.4% 18.7% 17.6%
1,072 40.0% 22.4% 21.6% — 15.9% 17.6%
TPOF 18–20 September 2023 1,077 31.4% 15.7% 23.1% 10.5% 19.4% 8.3%
1,077 33.4% 17.2% 27.4% — 22.1% 6%
TVBS 28 August – 1 September 2023 1,273 30% 19% 23% 14% 13% 7%
28 August 2023 Terry Gou declares his candidacy.
Mirror Media 27–28 August 2023 1,083 33.4% 15.3% 22.7% 12.9% 15.7% 10.7%
1,083 34.3% 16.2% 27.1% — 22.4% 7.2%
Formosa 23–24 August 2023 1,070 40.1% 15.6% 16.6% 12.0% 15.8% 23.5%
1,070 42.5% 17.0% 21.1% — 19.3% 21.4%
TVBS 21–24 August 2023 1,171 37% 22% 28% — 13% 9%
QuickseeK 17–21 August 2023 1,222 35.6% 16.2% 24.4% 12.4% 11.4% 11.2%
1,222 35.8% 17.9% 29.6% — 16.6% 6.2%
TPOF 14–15 August 2023 1,081 43.4% 13.6% 26.6% — 16.3% 16.8%
FTNN 9–13 August 2023 2,402 31.2% 14.8% 19.5% 11.8% 22.7% 8.5%
2,402 33.4% 15.9% 23.2% — 27.4% 6%
TVBS 24–26 July 2023 1,618 33% 25% 32% — 10% 1%
Formosa 24–25 July 2023 1,071 33.1% 17.3% 20.7% 12.8% 16.1% 12.4%
1,071 35.1% 19.9% 24.0% — 20.4% 11.1%
1,071 33.8% 17.4% — 30.7%[67] 18.1% 3.1%
TPOF 17–18 July 2023 1,088 36.4% 20.2% 27.8% — 15.7% 8.6%
TPOF 1,088 33.9% 18.0% 20.5% 15.2% 12.4% 13.4%
FTNN 11–16 July 2023 2,409 28.0% 12.4% 20.4% 14.4% 24.8% 3.2%
FTNN 2,409 30.2% 15.3% 25.4% — 29.1% 1.1%
QuickseeK 7–10 July 2023 1,178 34.8% 19.3% 30.8% — 15.0% 4%
1,178 32.8% — 27.7% 24.5% 15.0% 5.1%
1,178 33.8% 17.0% — 35.6%[67] 13.6% 1.8%
Z.Media 1–2 July 2023 1,079 29.8% 15.2% 24.4% 14.0% 16.2% 5.4%
1,079 32.0% 16.3% — 35.8%[67] 15.5% 3.8%
1,079 29.9% 16.0% 29.8% — 23.8% 0.1%
NCPF 30 June – 2 July 2023 1,075 31% 15% 19% 15% 20% 21%
1,075 34% 17% 25% — 24% 10%
CNEWS 28 June – 1 July 2023 1,816 29.3% 18.5% 30.8% — 21.4% 1.5%
Formosa 28–29 June 2023 1,070 33.3% 15.6% 20.9% 15.4% 14.8% 12.4%
1,070 35.9% 17.1% 28.6% — 18.4% 7.3%
BCC-Gallup 16–20 June 2023 1,083 31.89% 17.93% 24.62% — 21.97% 7.28%
TVBS 14–16 June 2023 1,080 30% 23% 33% — 14% 10%
TPOF 12–13 June 2023 1,080 36.5% 20.4% 29.1% — 14.0% 7.4%
CNEWS 31 May – 1 June 2023 1,077 35.7% 25.9% 24.9% — 13.5% 9.8%
Formosa 29–30 May 2023 1,072 35.4% 22.6% 25.5% — 16.5% 9.9%
Formosa 24–25 May 2023 1,072 35.8% 18.3% 25.9% — 20% 9.9%
NCPF 22–24 May 2023 1,082 34% 23% 23% — 20% 11%
Fount Media 22–23 May 2023 1,074 26.6% 24.7% 21.1% — 27.6% 1.9%
SETN 17–18 May 2023 1,080 29.8% 29.2% 20.8% — 20.2% 0.6%
TVBS 17–18 May 2023 1,444 27% 30% 23% — 20% 3%

Issue polling[edit]

Pollster Fieldwork date Sample problem Sample size Lai
DPP 		Hou
KMT 		Ko
TPP 		Gou
IND. 		Others
Undecided 		Lead
ETtoday 10–16 October 2023 Member mobile SMS backfill 1,582 34.7% 27.4% 25.5% — 12.3% 7.3%
RW News 10–14 October 2023 Online questionnaire backfill 11,055 42.62% 22.29% 24.93% 5.86% 4.30% 17.69%
11,055 42.85% 22.87% 26.09% — 8.20% 16.76%
udn 22–25 September 2023 No raw data 1,082 30% 20% 21% — 30% Tie
ETtoday 23–24 September 2023 Member mobile SMS backfill 1,368 32.0% 24.5% 20.7% 13.2% 9.6% 7.4%
RW News 12–16 September 2023 Online questionnaire backfill 10,846 42.52% 22.25% 24.23% 6.58% 4.41% 18.29%
KPoint Survey & Research 12–14 September 2023 No raw data 1,073 29.4% 18.4% 16.7% 14.0% 21.5% 7.9%
1,073 29.2% 21.5% 19.6% — 29.7% 0.5%
ETtoday 8–9 September 2023 Member mobile SMS backfill 1,337 35.1% 24.8% 20.0% 12.9% 7.2% 10.3%
1,337 36.5% 29.5% 22.9% — 11.0% 7%
ETtoday 29–30 August 2023 Member mobile SMS backfill 1,495 35.3% 21.4% 17.6% 17.2% 8.4% 13.9%
ETtoday 18–20 August 2023 Member mobile SMS backfill 1,207 35.4% 25.6% 24.2% — 14.9% 9.8%
RW News 15–19 August 2023 Online questionnaire backfill 11,324 40.56% 22.16% 23.13% 8.96% 5.18% 17.43%
RW News 11,324 40.99% 22.79% 25.80% — 10.12% 15.19%
ETtoday 15–17 August 2023 Member mobile SMS backfill 1,235 31.7% 18.6% 17.5% 10.2% 22.0% 9.7%
KPoint Survey & Research 31 July – 2 August 2023 No raw data 1,075 30.3% 15.1% 18.2% 14.8% 21.6% 8.7%
1,075 32.3% 15.8% 23.1% — 28.8% 3.5%
Newtalk 31 July – 1 August 2023 Member mobile SMS backfill 1,402 30.46% 16.92% 24.71% 17.34% 10.58% 5,75%
1,402 29.46% — 26.23% 26.31% 18.0% 3.15%
Newtalk 1,402 33.5% 21.4% 29.57% — 15.53% 3.93%
ETtoday 28–30 July 2023 Member mobile SMS backfill 1,753 33.4% 21.0% 21.6% 16.4% 7.7% 11.8%
ETtoday 1,753 35.6% 24.3% 28.8% — 11.3% 6.8%
TISR 19–20 July 2023 No raw data 1,068 29.0% 13.2% 17.7% 10.7% 4.0% 11.3%
1,068 33.8% 15.6% 24.9% — 6.0% 8.9%
RW News 12–16 July 2023 Online questionnaire backfill 12,464 38.23% 20.39% 25.29% 9.22% 6.87% 12.94%
RW News 12,464 38.48% 21.29% 28.34% — 11.89% 10.14%
ACEL 10–12 July 2023 No raw data 1,003 33.6% 14.8% 21.1% 12.5% 18.0% 15.6%
1,003 32.4% 17.6% 25.9% — 24.1% 6.5%
ERA NEWS 3–6 July 2023 No raw data 1,070 34.9% 14.5% 19.2% 14.6% 16.8% 15.7%
1,070 35.5% 17.2% 24.2% — 23.1% 11.3%
Newtalk 30 June – 1 July 2023 Member mobile SMS backfill 3,245 28.26% 14.63% 21.94% 22.29% 12.89% 5.97%
3,245 28.49% — 24.07% 28.77% 18.67% 0.28%
Newtalk 1,070 32.77% 21.31% 30.74% — 15.19% 2.03%
RW News 6–10 June 2023 Online questionnaire backfill 12,030 37.8% 21.9% 31.3% — 9.1% 6.5%
KPoint Survey & Research 6–9 June 2023 No raw data 1,076 31.2% 17.9% 21.5% — 29.4% 1.8%
ETtoday 23–25 May 2023 Member mobile SMS backfill 1,223 36.4% 27.7% 23.1% — 12.8% 8.7%
udn 18–21 May 2023 No raw data 1,090 28% 24% 22% — 27% 1%

Formosa daily poll[edit]

Number Fieldwork date Sample size Lai-Hsiao
DPP 		Hou-Jaw
KMT 		Ko-Wu
TPP 		Others
Undecided 		Lead
101 27–29 December 2023 1,253 39.6% 28.5% 18.9% 13.0% 11.1%
100 26–28 December 2023 1,326 40.2% 28.7% 18.4% 12.8% 11.5%
99 25–27 December 2023 1,201 40.0% 28.9% 17.6% 13.5% 11.1%
98 22, 25–26 December 2023 1,201 38.7% 29.7% 16.6% 15.0% 9%
97 21–22, 25 December 2023 1,349 38.9% 29.4% 17.2% 14.4% 9.5%
96 20–22 December 2023 1,470 37.5% 32.6% 16.3% 13.6% 4.9%
95 19–21 December 2023 1,470 37.3% 33.4% 17.7% 11.6% 3.9%
94 18–20 December 2023 1,322 36.3% 32.8% 17.7% 13.6% 3.5%
93 15, 18–19 December 2023 1,201 35.2% 30.6% 19.6% 14.6% 4.6%
92 14–15, 18 December 2023 1,201 35.0% 31.7% 18.2% 15.1% 3.3%
91 13–15 December 2023 1,201 35.2% 32.1% 19.7% 13.0% 3.1%
90 12–14 December 2023 1,201 35.7% 31.7% 18.6% 14.0% 4%
89 11–13 December 2023 1,201 35.2% 29.5% 19.0% 16.3% 5.7%
88 8, 11–12 December 2023 1,201 34.7% 31.2% 16.8% 17.3% 3.5%
87 7–8, 11 December 2023 1,201 35.1% 32.5% 17.0% 15.4% 2.6%
86 6–8 December 2023 1,201 37.8% 32.6% 17.3% 12.3% 5.6%
85 5–7 December 2023 1,201 40.5% 30.8% 16.3% 12.5% 9.7%
84 4–6 December 2023 1,201 40.1% 31.6% 14.8% 15.5% 8.5%
83 1, 4–5 December 2023 1,201 38.3% 31.4% 14.8% 15.4% 6.9%
82 30 November–1, 4 December 2023 1,201 38.0% 31.7% 14.9% 15.4% 6.3%
81 29 November–1 December 2023 1,201 37.8% 29.5% 17.7% 15.0% 8.3%
80 28–30 November 2023 1,348 37.1% 30.5% 17.5% 14.9% 6.6%
78 24, 27–28 November 2023 1,476 36.3% 31.0% 18.0% 14.7% 5.3%

CNEWS weekly poll[edit]

Sample Week Fieldwork date Sample method Sample size Lai
DPP 		Hou
KMT 		Ko
TPP 		Gou
IND. 		Others
Undecided 		Lead
1st week of December 30 November – 1 December 2023 local phone + mobile phone 2,008 36.9% 28.0% 26.0% — 9.1% 8.9%
local phone 1,000 37.1% 32.9% 17.4% — 12.6% 4.2%
4th week of November 24 – 25 November 2023 local phone + mobile phone 2,013 36.8% 26.6% 26.8% — 9.8% 10%'
local phone 1,000 39.9% 29.7% 18.9% — 11.5% 10.2%
24 November 2023 Terry Gou withdraws his candidacy.[3]
2nd week of November 10 – 11 November 2023 local phone + mobile phone 2,046 30.8% 18.0% 26.0% 9.3% 15.9% 4.8%
local phone 1,033 33.9% 22.2% 22.4% 7.3% 14.2% 11.5%
1st week of November 4 – 5 November 2023 local phone + mobile phone 2,000 32.7% 17.3% 25.8% 10.0% 14.2% 6.9%
local phone 1,000 34.7% 20.9% 19.7% 9.9% 14.8% 13.8%
5th week of October 29 – 30 October 2023 local phone + mobile phone 2,049 25.6% 16.0% 25.4% 13.3% 19.7% 0.2%
local phone 1,012 29.1% 18.2% 20.4% 10.8% 21.5% 8.7%
4th week of October 21 – 22 October 2023 local phone + mobile phone 2,048 24.0% 16.2% 24.7% 15.8% 19.3% 0.7%
local phone 1,034 27.6% 19.1% 19.7% 14.1% 19.5% 7.9%
3rd week of October 13 – 14 October 2023 local phone + mobile phone 2,062 29.7% 16.2% 27.7% 11.7% 14.7% 2%
local phone 1,051 34.8% 19.6% 20.4% 8.9% 16.3% 14.4%
2nd week of October 7 – 8 October 2023 local phone + mobile phone 2,045 31.6% 17.0% 26.7% 11.2% 13.5% 4.9%
local phone 1,030 36.0% 17.8% 20.4% 9.1% 16.7% 15.6%
1st week of October 29 – 30 September 2023 local phone + mobile phone 2,037 28.6% 16.9% 24.3% 12.3% 17.9% 4.3%
local phone 1,030 31.5% 17.8% 19.8% 10.2% 20.7% 10.8%
4th week of September 23 – 24 September 2023 local phone + mobile phone 2,016 27.3% 14.2% 23.7% 14.2% 20.6% 3.6%
local phone 1,013 32.6% 14.8% 18.9% 12.3% 20.4% 12.2%

3rd week of September

15 – 16 September 2023 local phone + mobile phone 2,052 28.0% 16.3% 22.6% 13.7% 19.4% 5.4%
local phone 1,025 29.7% 20.8% 16.7% 14.1% 18.7% 8.9%
2nd week of September 9 – 10 September 2023 local phone + mobile phone 2,145 28.4% 15.6% 23.4% 13.0% 19.6% 5%
local phone 1,127 31.5% 16.1% 18.9% 10.6% 22.9% 8.6%
1st week of September 1 – 2 September 2023 local phone + mobile phone 2,024 29.7% 14.8% 23.4% 12.6% 19.5% 6.3%
local phone 1,008 35.4% 15.1% 16.7% 10.7% 22.1% 13.3%
Note：
  • Taiwan CNEWS believes that the different survey methods of each media have led to huge differences in results, and decided to continue to publish presidential election polls starting in September 2023.
  • The survey method is 50% local phone and 50% mobile phone. The number of samples is more than 2,000. In addition, more than 1,000 local phone survey results are simultaneously calculated.


Results[edit]

CandidateRunning mateParty
Lai Ching-teHsiao Bi-khimDemocratic Progressive Party
Hou Yu-ihJaw Shaw-kongKuomintang
Ko Wen-jeCynthia WuTaiwan People's Party
Total

Notes[edit]

See also[edit]

References[edit]

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